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Prediction for CME (2024-08-14T08:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-08-14T08:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32795/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo directed towards the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 imagery and is visible mostly to the northeast in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an X1.1 flare and eruption from Active Region 13784 (N14E03) starting around 2024-08-14T06:27Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Dimming is observed in SDO AIA 171 and 193 surrounding the eruption site, and post-eruptive arcades begin to form around 08:30Z. Arrival signature: Interplanetary shock characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal sharply increasing from 7nT at 2024-08-17T13:29Z to 17nT at 13:35Z and a period of negative Bz reaching -17nT, after which Bz stayed mostly positive. A jump in solar wind speed from 333 km/s at 2024-08-17T13:29Z to 432 km/s at 13:34 and sharp increases in temperature to near 200,000 K at 13:34Z and in density initially to 12 p/cc and eventually to 45 p/cc.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-08-17T13:29Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-18T04:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2024 Aug 16 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...

...

Analysis of the CME associated with the X1.1 flare on 14 Aug indicated
an Earth-directed component, with the bulk of the ejecta arriving as
early as late on 17 Aug, but likely early on 18 Aug. Confidence remains
low for timing and magnitude. No additional CMEs with an Earth-directed
component was observed.

Lead Time: 73.30 hour(s)
Difference: -14.52 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2024-08-14T12:11Z

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